Hi Kevscannell.
interesting point about stumpage prices. and yes, i'd always prefer to follow the timber marketplace compared to other more dismal financial ones.
We've been collecting stumpage data since 1988 in CT, MA, and RI, and aggregating it on a quarterly basis. and as you know, these quarterly reports can all be found online here:
masswoods.net/index.php/stumpage
there are consistent and significantly different prices for oak east and west of the CT River. those of us that gather the stumpage data felt from the start that we ought to collect, analyze, and report on these differences to give people the clearest picture of the stumpage marketplace. we believed it did a disservice to people with excellent oak stands to somehow lump their data in with stands of lesser value. especially if proven statistically significant differences existed.
I believe the basis for the significant differences lie primarily in the differences in soil type, stemming from differences in bedrock geology. there are lots of indirect indicators of this- spend a day driving around east Franklin county, e.g., and see how little of the landscape is dedicated to agriculture, compared to west county. same can be said for the differences between VT and NH to the north. you see the same thing in CT. i suspect a review of the soils maps and NRCS estimates of productivity would show the same thing.
it will be interesting to see what happens to the timber marketplace when we do finally emerge from this recession!